APM Conference 2025 positioned Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) not just as a challenge, but a core design principle for 21st-century projects. The overarching message was clear: modern project success relies less on certainty, and more on the ability to adapt with clarity and purpose. Projects must be designed to respond, not just control unpredictability. This signals a broader shift towards iterative learning, agile thinking, and adaptive leadership in an increasingly dynamic environment.
My key four takeaways on managing projects in VUCA environments were:
1. Embrace VUCA as the default, not the exception:
Several keynote speakers from infrastructure and digital transformation sectors emphasised that VUCA is no longer an edge case, it’s the baseline environment. Projects must be designed to respond, not just control unpredictability. This view echoed throughout sessions that explored how traditional control-driven project models struggle to cope with today’s fast-changing external environments.
2. Agile approaches combined with VUCA awareness strengthen organisational resilience:
Conference discussions explored how agile approaches are well suited to projects operating in volatile and ambiguous conditions. Project professionals were encouraged to adopt adaptive governance that support iterative decision-making. Several sessions highlighted techniques such as sprint-based planning, rolling wave planning and dynamic risk tools as effective methods for managing uncertainty and reducing risk in complex project environments. Case studies from public health and AI sectors demonstrated that VUCA-aware risk frameworks (like dynamic risk registers and real-time scenario analysis) can outperform traditional fixed models.
3. The power of adaptive leadership in VUCA times
There was a strong emphasis at the conference on the role of adaptive leadership to guide projects through VUCA conditions. Leaders must foster psychological safety and continuous learning within teams facing uncertainty and ambiguity. The truth is that certainty is an illusion, the future has always been uncertain and will remain that way. Leadership is not about eliminating uncertainty; it is about developing the confidence and clarity to move forward. That means leading with purpose and helping people find meaning in the uncertainty and complexity around them. In this way, vision becomes more than a goal; it becomes a shared mission. If we want resilient organisations, we need to develop VUCA-ready teams that not just cope with change, but influence it.
4. The growing importance of systems thinking in VUCA environments
Traditional project management often relies on top-down decomposition based on clearly defined goals and solutions. However, in VUCA environments, goals may be unclear, and problems more complex and interconnected. At the APM Conference 2025, Professor Mike Bourne emphasised that systems thinking is increasingly essential, as projects no longer operate in isolation but are influenced by wider systems such as supply chains, regulations, and stakeholder networks. Systems thinking helps project managers consider problems holistically, respond to emerging behaviours, and make better strategic decisions. It complements standard methods, allowing organisations to adapt their project management approach to handle complexity and uncertainty more effectively.
As Bob Johansen mentions in his book, Leaders Make the Future, leaders can counter volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity conditions with VUCA antidote: Vision, Understanding, Clarity, and Agility.
