Paul Naybour
Hi Paul Could you let me know what you think of my response to the excercise?
Section 5.3 Estimating
If you had to estimate how long the road testing might take, how might you do it? There are a specific number of miles to be covered and a period of time. What do you need to know? How might you calculate it?
How we might do it? – To estimate how long the road testing may take we can do this by comparative estimating if there was a similar project that we could measure and scale against. However in this instance we shall be employing a combination of parametric and three points estimating using a PERT formula.
What we need to know? – We need to know what the best estimate is in time taken to travel 20km. Once we know that we can then multiply this by 1000. This shall give us an estimate of how long it will take to complete the 20,000km of road testing required.
How might we calculate it? – It can be calculated by making the following assumption in regards to how long it will take in varying weather and terrain conditions.
Assumption
1. Poor weather and terrain conditions – 3 hours
2. Average weather and terrain conditions- 2 hours
3. Good weather and terrain conditions – 1 hour
Best estimate = (1 x Poor) + (4 x Average) + (1 x Good)
6
= (1 x 3) + (4 x 2) + (1 x 1)
6
= 3 + 8 + 1
6
= 12
6
= 2 x 1000
= 2000 hours