Whirlwind Bikes Excercise Section 5.3 Estimating

Hi Paul Could you let me know what you think of my response to the excercise?

 

Section 5.3 Estimating

If you had to estimate how long the road testing might take, how might you do it? There are a specific number of miles to be covered and a period of time. What do you need to know? How might you calculate it?

 

How we might do it? – To estimate how long the road testing may take we can do this by comparative estimating if there was a similar project that we could measure and scale against. However in this instance we shall be employing a combination of parametric and three points estimating using a PERT formula.

 

What we need to know? – We need to know what the best estimate is in time taken to travel 20km. Once we know that we can then multiply this by 1000. This shall give us an estimate of how long it will take to complete the 20,000km of road testing required.

 

How might we calculate it? – It can be calculated by making the following assumption in regards to how long it will take in varying weather and terrain conditions.

 

Assumption

1.    Poor weather and terrain conditions                   3 hours

2.    Average weather and terrain conditions-           2 hours

3.    Good weather and terrain conditions                  1 hour

 

Best estimate = (1 x Poor) + (4 x Average) + (1 x Good)

                                                      6

 

 =         (1 x 3) + (4 x 2) + (1 x 1)

                                                      6

 

 =         3 + 8 + 1

                                        6

 

 =          12

              6

 

 =         2 x 1000

 

 =         2000 hours

 

 

 

 

 

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Paul Naybour

Paul Naybour is a seasoned project management consultant with over 15 years of experience in the industry. As the co-founder and managing director of Parallel, Paul has been instrumental in shaping the company's vision and delivering exceptional project management training and consultancy services. With a robust background in power generation and extensive senior-level experience, Paul specializes in the development and implementation of change programs, risk management, earned value management, and bespoke project management training.

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